In recent months, we have published a series of stories on South African unmanned air vehicle (UAV) programmes, projects and proposals in our print, online and video (Real Economy Report) editions. These have covered the products and projects of Advanced Technologies & Engineering (ATE), Denel Dynamics and the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR). Indeed, there is a story on the CSIR research UAV programme in this very edition.
This is because South Africa has been a world leader in UAVs, and UAVs are becoming very important, both technologically and as a business sector, within the aerospace industry.
US aerospace and defence market analysis company Teal Group recently forecast that the global UAV market will be worth more than $62-billion over the next ten years. It states that UAVs are the most dynamic segment growth sector in the global aerospace industry. Currently, total world expenditure on UAVs amounts to $4,4-billion a year, and this should reach an annual figure of $8,7-billion after ten years.
In addition, billions of dollars more is being, and will be, spent on payloads for UAVs.
During the 2009 US financial year (FY), worldwide expenditure on UAV payloads exceeded $2-billion, and Teal expects this spending to rise to $5-billion in US FY2018. These payloads include command, control, communications, computer and intelligence systems; electro-optical/infrared sensors; electronic warfare systems; signals intelligence systems; chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear sensors; and synthetic aperture radars.
Respected British aerospace journal Flight International currently lists 59 companies worldwide which manufacture UAVs, including ATE and Denel. (The CSIR is not a UAV manufacturer; it only produces a handful or less of each of its designs, and they are all for research purposes, not for series production.)
UAVs are big business. They are also cutting-edge technology, especially with regard to autonomous control systems, both hardware and software. At the very top end, both the US and UK are known to be working on tailless blended wing body (BWB) stealth UAVs, which also involve leading-edge airframe and materials technology, design and manufacture.
UAVs are also aircraft that South Africa has the financial resources and technological capability to totally design and manufacture on its own. And South Africa has successfully exported UAVs.
But, while five years ago one could have confidently asserted that South Africa was a world-leader in UAVs, along with the US and Israel, today the country is grave danger of losing that status. Huge amounts of money are being poured into UAVs, by the US, UK, Israel, and many others.
There are now, or now under development, nano-, micro-, and mini-UAVs (issued to infantry companies, even platoons, and often hand-launched), battalion-level tactical UAVs (like ATE's Vulture, designed to provide observation for field artillery units), brigade-level tactical UAVs (Denel's Seeker would fit here), medium altitiude long-endurance (Male) UAVs (for divisions, corps, and armies) and high altitude long-endurance (Hale) UAVs (strategic systems, exemplified by the extremely expensive US Global Hawk). There are fixed-wing and rotary-wing designs, and ducted fan designs that look just like flying saucers. And there are Unmanned Combat Air Vehicles (UCAVs), of which the best known is General Atomics' MQ-9 Reaper (previously called the Predator B).
Ironically, South Africa was one of the first countries to develop a stealth UAV design, codenamed Flowchart, but it seems never to have progressed beyond the stage of a wind tunnel model. It was not, however a tailless BWB design. Nor was Denel's subsequent stealth UAV/UCAV design, designated Seraph.
At the small end off the UAV scale, ATE has developed the hand-launched Kiwit mini-UAV, which has not yet gained any customers (but it was only unveiled last year). Its Vulture system is now being delivered to the South African Army. Denel Dynamics is marketing the latest version of its Seeker family, the Seeker 400, which represents a significant improvement over the Seeker II. Top of the range in South Africa is Denel's Bateleur Male UAV - announced in 2003, it has still not progressed past the mock-up, and the company is hoping that Brazil will turn the project into reality by investing in it, just as they have invested in Denel's A-Darter missile. But Brazil is also talking to the Israelis about cooperating on a Male UAV programme. The CSIR is seeking to help the local industry keep up with the latest international trends - for example with its Sekwa BWB (altthough it has upturned wing tips) UAV, to develop local expertise in BWB flight control algorithms.
Despite all the work done on UAVs in this country, the South African National Defence Force (SANDF) only operates the original Seeker system - which can now be regarded as obsolete - and the Vulture. The Kiwit, Seeker 400, and Bateleur would all be of enormous value to the SANDF, to support its peacekeeping deployments, and patrol the country's borders and maritime frontiers. But none have been ordered by the SANDF, nor is there any sign they will be (Denel is very hopeful for a foreign contract for the Seeker 400, as was ty achieved with the Seeker II).
Nor is there any large-scale local UAV research and development (R&D) programme to further develop and promote local capabilities. There are only small projects. Critical mass is lacking.
Through lack of investment in both R&D and in finished products, South Africa is abdicating the lead it once held, in a booming high-tech sector it could successfully compete in, globally. As the Americans say, go figure.
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